The Observant Astronomer

The passing scene as observed by an observant Jew, who daylights as an astronomer.

Friday, August 12, 2005

There's no predicting the weather

The link is to the archive for Tropical Storme Irene currently making its way through the North Atlantic. It is amusing to follow through the Discussions. This is a case where the various weather models are providing very poor guidance to the forcasters, and they are having to rely on their experience rather than the computer modelling. Take for example Discussion 4, or Discussion 19. This is probably going to turn into a hurricane, but no one here knows where it is going. It is too bad that they don't give a graphic comparing the predictions to the actual path though. That would be very interesting.


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